Friday, December 5, 2008
Do Not Worry, Fan
Worst Entrance Ramp Ever
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Every day, traffic in this cluster of entrance and exit ramps is the most ridiculously chaotic thing you can imagine. If you are unaware, this area of California is a very crowded place, and most of the crowd is not blessed with the best of driving abilities. Yesterday, I was following someone driving straight down a main road, and then this person decided to entirely stop forward progress at a green light at an intersection. This person stayed stopped for an extended period of time, then decided that crossing the intersection on green was the best course of action. What was even more weird about this situation was that this kind of driving behavior in California did not surprise me.
Waiting for Something
First, I want to acknowledge Ron Gettlefinger and the UAW for, at least verbally, accepting in public and vocally that they are willing to make significant concessions. Some may say that the prospect of these concessions is not enough and that they are long overdue, but this is not an easy thing to accept for a union, and I can understand how the UAW fears that it will become a slippery slope toward completely giving up a decent standard of living. This is in stark contrast to my earlier post about Ron Gettlefinger and the UAW, and this is one instance in which I am happy to eat some delicious, delicious crow. Issues like union concessions, even for the purposes of survival, are not as black and white as I, and others, would prefer to assume.
Next, I want to present the simplest case for supporting a bailout that I possibly can - going beyond the massive job loss, significant reduction in domestic manufacturing capacity and output, destruction of domestically engineered and produced technologically for moving away from foreign oil, blah, blah, blah...According to this article from The New York Times, GM has $85B in pension obligations (obligations that they currently have the capacity to pay from their pension fund). In the event of GM bankruptcy, these pension obligations will likely be transferred to the Pension Guarantee Corp., an organization responsible for ensuring pension payments. Let's say GM, Ford, and Chrysler combined eventually require 2 times their current request from taxpayers (total of $72B), which I hope is an aggressive assumption. That is still $13B less than GM's pension obligations alone. And do you know where the money from the Pension Guarantee Corp. comes from? U.S. Taxpayers (and also borrowed from other countries)! I'm not saying this is a good thing, but the math on this issue alone is pretty straightforward. This is only one of several similar examples where the cost of a loan, while painful, is significantly less than the cost of the alternative. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but it is true.
Finally, I just want someone to make some sort of decision and allow the people affected by this decision to figure out the next steps in their lives. Loans, Chapter 11, Chapter 7, nuclear bombing, whatever the heck it ends up being, there are millions and millions of Americans and non-Americans who need a decision. America may be suffering from "bailout fatigue", but those affected by this decision are suffering from "will I have my job tomorrow, will my home be worth anything, when will people stop hating my state, why do people hate my state, will I be forced to move away from my family, will my kids be able to grow up in my home state fatigue." I hope the cards fall in our direction, but even if they don't, I just need someone to push them one way or the other.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Briefly Hitting the Road
Before I go, I would like to share with you two things that annoy me very, very much. The first thing is when people say "Are you walking the dog or is the dog walking you" or some variant, and second, the statement "I didn't get the memo about (insert color here) shirt day". I could die a slightly less aggravated person if I could remove these two statements from the American lexicon.
Both of these statements are things that, for some reason, everyone feels obligated to say when they see a person walking with a dog or when two people who work in close proximity are wearing the same color shirt. I can not understand if the people who say these things think they are being funny, original, creative, or simply attempting to poke fun despite the fact that their attempts at fun-poking are simultaneously being recited >1M times around the world at that exact same second. To start with the dog thing, just to be clear, I am walking the dog, not the other way around. I don't think in the history of time a dog has ever walked a person. That would be craziness and mayhem would break out around the world. I understand that you find it humorous that the dog is excited and pulling on its leash, but it is not funny to me. I would also like you to realize that there is a good chance that at least 3 other people have asked me the same thing on the same walk. I don't want to come across as being too curmudgeonly, but there are so many other things that we could talk about that aren't related to your perception that the dog may be walking me. Because it is not.
On the shirt thing, there are only so many shirt colors in the universe, and these colors all come from the same seven popular primary colors. In many business settings, there could be several thousand employees all working in the same general area. Because of this, there is a great chance that two or more people who work close to each other are going to wear a shirt that you could broadly classify as blue. There is also a decent chance that these two people may be wearing the exact same shirt from the same manufacturer because there are only so many shirt manufacturers in the world. In this instance, I can probably guarantee you that these people will have identified that they are wearing the same color shirt before you, and that they are likely feeling a little embarrassed because they know the "shirt/memo" comment is on its way. What are we supposed to do - call everyone who works in the same building as us to color and outfit-coordinate every single day? It is perfectly acceptable for you to mentally note that I may be wearing the same color shirt as another person, but you are free and encouraged to let this coincidence pass without specific comment.
See you Sunday!
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Walking Home
First, only about 1/4 mile into the constitutional, I was approached by a hooded guy about my age or maybe a little younger who was kind enough to offer me "Yo dude, two cigarettes for a dollar." I have never tried a cigarette in my life, but I was touched that this nice person was encouraging me to experience new things in life, and at such a deal! I declined his offer, but as you may already know, I was shocked to learn from discount cigarette websites that I can order something called a "National Premium Marlboro carton" for $40, and that there are about 200 cigarettes in a carton. Doing the quick math, I determined that a cigarette really costs closer to 20 cents / cigarette, and that this offer was actually a 30 cent premium. I can not fault such an enterprising youth. It's important to find ways to make a buck, and it makes perfect sense to sell things to other people at a cost greater than it cost to originally purchase those things.
As I crossed over I-696 to the north side of Woodward, I was reminded of just how much I dislike that relatively new tall clock tower with working massive LCD billboards. When they started building it several years ago, I thought there was a good chance that it would turn out totally awesome like that clock tower in Back to the Future, but instead, it turned out crappy like that terrible clock tower in Back to the Future III.
I noticed a sign at the base of the tower indicating that the tower with billboards was available for purchase. I've worked hard for my whole life and I live in a thrifty fashion, so I was fascinated at the thought of owning a clock tower and billboards, or possibly convincing others to go in on the purchase with me. If I owned it, I could either turn off the tacky things for a more pleasant Woodward experience for all, or alternatively, put really fantastic messages of my choosing on the billboards. "Happy Birthday, Ken" - "Everywhere else is worse than here" - "2 Cigarettes, 50 cents". When I got home and looked up the price of the purchase online (complete with 0.12 acres!) I was saddened to learn that this piece of property costs an insane $1.5M. Needless to say, my dreams of ownership were destroyed, and we will not, in fact, be going back to the future.Finally, on the home stretch of my walk, I passed by another electronic sign indicating on one side that the time was 1:26, and on the other side, that the time was 1:01. According to my globally-synchronized cell phone, the time was actually 1:06. The topper was that immediately after the time flashed, the board proudly displayed the message "TRUST CMI". I will not trust you, CMI. Not only do you not know the time, you failed at your attempt to hedge on the correctness of the time by including a second, different time on the same sign. Here is a Google Streeview picture of this sign, albeit fairly blurry.
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Getting out there and walking around a little bit is a great opportunity to see your home's surroundings, experience some weird things, and consider outrageous purchases.
Monday, December 1, 2008
A&E is Lucky
Finally, I am not sure how all of these people from an insane asylum managed to get jobs in advertising on Madison Avenue. Were I hiring, I would have taken one quick look at the application, noticed that the candidate had spent some time in an asylum, and not given him a job as an executive at an advertising agency. The 50s were a crazy time and talent availability must have been thin.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
BurgerFest-O-Rama #2 - Miller's Bar
Once you get seated, you have the following dining options: hamburger, cheeseburger (Velveeta or Swiss), fries, onion rings, beer (from bottles), soda (from cans), and bottled water. There are no menus, plates, or silverware at Miller's as far as we could tell. You place your order, consume your food, and then walk up to the cash register where you tell them what you ordered and pay only cash. It is an honors system in the most traditional sense, and I wonder how often they get burned for this approach. Now on to the food...My table ordered 1 medium hamburger, 1 medium cheeseburger, 2 medium-well cheeseburgers, three orders of onion rings, one order of fries, and 2 sodas (Steve and I have general objections to ordering non-refillable soda or paying for water). The burgers come with nothing on them but the meat and/or cheese, and they put some raw onion, pickles, ketchup, and mustard on your table as potential additions. Our feast:Pros: I had no idea I would like Velveeta on a burger this much, simplicity of the product (no tomato, lettuce) really let the purity of burger shine, girls thought the meat was very juicy (boys less so), adults thought the beers were colder than your average beer, American institution, unassuming atmosphere, quick-moving line, tasted like I would expect an exceptional burger off of a home grill would taste
Cons: inconsistent cooking (medium burgers at our table to medium-well, medium-well closer to well resulting in some dryness), some topping options would have been appreciated by some, Maureen and Melissa had some type of floating lard in their soda glasses, some hard chunks of gristle in my burger, not enough "crisp" on onion rings and fries, no free beverage whatsoever
This series of reviews is mostly about the burgers, but also a little bit about the dining experience. With some higher dissenting opinions (my mom thought the burger was going to be her new standard for quality comparison and probably a 3 Hamburglar), I think we decided that the Miller's Bar burger will forever be known as:
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Works on Contingency?
Lionel Hutz: All right, gentlemen, I'll take your case. But I'm going to have to ask for a thousand-dollar retainer.
Bart: A thousand dollars? But your ad says "No money down".
Lionel Hutz: Oh! They got this all screwed up... (makes a few corrections) "Works on contingency basis? No, money down!"
Bart: So you don't work on a contingency basis?
Lionel Hutz: No, money down! Oops, it shouldn't have this Bar Association logo here either. (Rips off Bar Association logo, swallows it)
On my daily internet prowl, I came across this post, written by someone who claims his name is Tom Barlow. Alternatively, I was considering naming this post "Satire, thy Name is Tom Barlow". One of the best things about blogging is that if you do not have the time to come up with your own original material for a day, you can always poke fun at someone who put in some amount of time and effort. The internet is mean.
I know most people probably won't actually click on the link I provided, so here it is in all of its hilarious hilarity. No, I have not altered this in any way to make it appear less funny.
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How Obama could save Detroit, jobs, and stimulate the economy
As President-elect Obama looks for ways to save our economy, I'd like to humbly suggest he consider taking a page out of Oprah Winfrey's play book by offering an 'Everybody Gets a Chevy!" economic stimulus plan.
The measure, which would put a new American-built car or truck in every American driveway, would put GM back on its feet, send thousands of GM employees back to work and free up consumer cash for other necessities such as conversion kits and spinner hubcaps. And the cost? What's a few trillion among friends?
I'm undecided about whether Americans should have the opportunity to pick out the model and accessory packages of their free car. Put me down for a 'Vette, though. A red one.
And yes, this is satire.
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And yes, this is satire of satire. Count it.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
For Those Who Love Thanksgiving and Depressed Children
As your daily programming note, I thought I would let everyone know that tonight at 8pm EST, ABC is airing A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving. I love Charlie Brown and the whole Charlie Brown universe. Maureen has never really enjoyed Charlie Brown and the gang, and when I asked her why, she said that all the kids always seemed depressed. Upon further reflection, I think she's largely correct in this regard. I'm not sure why I'm attracted to watch the Charlie Brown holiday specials whenever I can catch them, but they really put me in the holiday spirit.Here's an un-fun fact for the day - Vince Guaraldi, the amazing jazz musician who wrote the music for 16 Charlie Brown television specials as well as the much-loved Linus and Lucy theme, died at the young age of 47 in 1976. Earlier that day, he had just finished recording the soundtrack for It's Arbor Day, Charlie Brown. That is a bummer, and probably explains why It's Arbor Day, Charlie Brown did not become a smash success. I also have a Vince Guaraldi song called Skating as my ringtone set up for when my co-workers call me. It puts me in an incredibly pleasant mood.
In conclusion, watch Charlie Brown, listen to Vince Guaraldi, and avoid Arbor Day at all costs.
Jim Tressel - a.k.a Bracing for Your Anger
Saturday, The University of Michigan was soundly defeated for the ninth unfortunate time this season. This one stings a little differently than the rest (I don't know if I would say "worse" - we did lose to Toledo) because of the larger rivalry implications with Ohio State University. The game was characteristically ugly and, yet again, Michigan was beaten soundly by a clearly superior football product. There is little/nothing positive to find in the game and...on top of that, there are not many reasons to expect any sort of different outcome for the season next year. With all of the other painful things going on right now, Michigan football would be a great outlet and place into which we can funnel our pride until there is something else on which we can hang our hats. As I have stated before, I went to Michigan for my undergraduate and graduate degrees in engineering, and I went to every home game (except maybe a couple) between 2000 and 2007. I would say that I place myself in the "big fan" category when it comes to Michigan football. Having said all that, I would like to think that I have a historical and contemporary perspective of the Michigan/OSU rivalry and I feel the appropriate amount of contempt toward Ohio State in this regard.The one thing that I have never entirely been able to understand since 2001, when Jim Tressel was hired to replace John Cooper at Ohio State, is the extreme contempt and hatred that Michigan fans feel for Jimbo. The only reason I could mostly understand is that Jim Tressel has had great success in the NCAA as a whole, but particularly against UM, and therefore, people hate that he has dominated us so consistently since his hiring. Other people may hate his sweater vest/tie combo, but I think a coach should be recognized when he values the necessary fashion requirements of a college football sideline.
I know I risk a tiny mutiny when I say this, but I have no problem with Jim Tressel. In fact, there is a chance I kind of like him as a person. Over the last couple of years when OSU has really taken it to UM, he has been nothing but complimentary and polite in his words when referring to both the less-talented Michigan squad and the rivalry itself. Even though OSU stuck it to Michigan this weekend quite badly, the first thing Jim said in his on-the-field interview was that Michigan played hard, did not give up, and the game was much more difficult than the final score might indicate. Most coaches would say the politically correct things in this situation as he did, but in this level of historical rivalry, almost no one would fault him if he decided to send a small zinger toward Michigan to build momentum toward next year's game: he just crushed them and they had a ridiculously terrible season with no bowl game of which to speak. As far as I can remember, I can't remember a single negative thing I have heard him say or read about him.
It is entirely possible that I am overlooking an old story about him being an evil person or some terrible thing he has said about Michigan, and if this is the case, please send the link my way. I don't want to like the man, but I can't seem to find a reason to dislike him. Any other reasons I'm missing? It is your job, world, to convince me that Jim Tressel is the worst thing since unsliced bread.
Monday, November 24, 2008
The Awesome Power of Lynn D.
It seems like it might be dumb to thank anyone when you are as stunningly insignificant as I am, but it is heartwarming to know that some people are reading, commenting on, and hopefully enjoying my writing. I would also like to give a special thanks to Dan A. for posting a link to my blog on his MySpace page, Nick B. for linking through to me on his blog, GreatLakesGuru for keeping a feed of my updates in his sidebar, and anyone else who has left a comment. I have to read every one.
Trying to build something requires a few necessary components. First, what appears in this space has to be worthy of reading. Second, I need to bug family and friends about checking out my blog until they are absolutely sick of me. Third, and perhaps most importantly, if you do enjoy what I write and agree or disagree with my point of view and purpose, I could not appreciate anything more than you linking to a post of mine here or there, posting one of my articles on your Facebook page and exposing me to your network of friends, or, at the very least, not throwing rotten food at me when you see me on the street. Seriously, please, stop with the rotten food.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
BurgerFest-O-Rama #1 - Bagger Dave's
0 Hamburglars - Edible and enjoyable, but not altogether great burger. Think McDonald's original hamburger as the baseline for 0 Hamburglars.
1 Hamburglar - officially determined as "good" but not life-changing. Again using fast food guide, a 1 is probably closer to a Whopper. I would eat a Whopper any day of the week, but we're working on eating Metro Detroit's "Best Burgers"
2 Hamburglars - "Very good", as in "that was better than a Whopper but I'm sure better is out there"
3 Hamburglars - "Excellent", you would not kill for an excellent burger, but perhaps you would be willing to maim
4 Hamburglars - "The Best", while "the best" normally refers to the one to rule them all, we are going to allow a few of "The Bests" for the purposes of this quest because at a certain point, it becomes impossible to enhance a burger to further greatness. Otherwise, you are eating a burger in heaven.
Maureen ordered a "Create Your Own Legend Burger" with mozzarella, tomatoes, grilled onions, romaine lettuce, and one 3.5 oz beef patty (someone in the kitchen was feeling quite kind and provided her with two 3.5 oz patties, +1 for Bagger Dave's) and a sesame bun with a side of fries. I ordered the "Trainwreck Burger" as the most expensive item on the menu (at $6.99), and a burger I felt most adequately represented what might make Bagger Dave's special. This burger consisted of two beef patties, super sharp cheddar, grilled onions, sauteed mushrooms, iceberg lettuce, mayo, fries, and an egg - all on the burger. All burgers are cooked to medium-well, -1 for Bagger Dave's if you are the kind of person who likes to consume actually red meat.
Cons: Inconsistent lettuce application - my lettuce pieces were chopped oddly, small, and kept falling out of the burger. Maureen's lettuce piece was under the meat which kind of cooked the lettuce and made it soft and wilted. Mushroom distribution uneven, if I did have cheddar on my burger as promised, I definitely didn't notice it was "super sharp", only five total fries included in the Trainwreck Burger. I imagined them piled high and smashed under the bun in potato-ey/meaty harmony, fries do not come with burger order
Based on the newly-devised Hamburglar scale, we rate Bagger Dave's:
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Yet Another Reason Not to Like O.A.R.
Friday, November 21, 2008
What Someone Said About Something Else
That level of unemployment represents an almost unimaginable human tragedy and one that might have been avoided in part if management at large financial house had not bet the bank on mortgage derivatives. But, that is water under the bridge.
The question which gets begged is where all of those people will go. Many bankers are not qualified for other high-paying jobs, which means they will stay unemployed for long periods or will face having to take significant cuts in their incomes. Either way, the shift will take a large toll on government services such as unemployment benefits. Let's not forget the lost taxes.That all sounds familiar, doesn't it? Using phrases like "unimaginable human tragedy" is pretty quaint, because pretty much everyone in Michigan is doing a pretty good job of imagining the human tragedy every second of every day, and according to most estimates, our developing tragedy would far outweigh this one. We're the best at something! On top of this, I am personally insulted that from some commentators, banking gets the "it's water under the bridge" comment, whereas Detroit's flawed past is a primary rallying cry against us.
The loss of a job is devastating for any individual and the loss of an industry is devastating for a large community of individuals. It is hard to feel as bad as I would like to for the banking industry right now. I don't think it is false to say that a big component of the current set of economic issues is because the banking industry identified ways to (un)successfully invent money. I readily acknowledge that we all have our own share of the blame to pass around as we allowed this wealth-related enthusiasm to increase our collective standard of living to an unsustainable level, but I rarely hear those within the financial world discussing the "unimaginable human tragedy" that is continuining to crest right now within Michigan. Is it because the average auto worker's salary is lower than a banker's, and therefore, a less important human tragedy?
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Combining Two Loves
This sounds a lot like an idea I've been tinkering with lately - except my idea was broader like "Hey, someone should make a show about Michigan and figure out a way to draw attention to Michigan and possibly include zombies and ninja turtles and various references to my blog." I'm glad that someone has finally acknowledged my creativity and I expect that I will receive some sort of creator credit during the title sequences for my contributions.
This show still seems to be in the pre-embryonic stages and it is entirely possible that it will never make the air. If it does eventually show up, there may be no more U.S. auto companies and it will have lost some of its relevance. I think this should be reason enough to convince the government to float us some money.
Some Guy Who is Smarter than Me
On one other auto-related note for the evening/now morning, here is a pretty interesting commentary written by Peter Karmanos, founder and CEO of Compuware. In it, he highlights the hypocrisy of Senator Shelby from the great state of Alabama. I don't want to regurgitate his thoughts, so I request that you take a minute to read through the commentary to better understand some of Senator Shelby's "Do as I say not as I do" attitude. Alabama, I would like to point out, would be in quite an advantageous and lucrative position in the event of Big 3 failure. There are two things that I truly hate in this world - hypocrisy and spiders. And Subway shops that don't sell $5 footlongs. And elevator door close buttons that don't work.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Things I Learned Today #5 - Subway Lies
Have you seen one of those incredibly annoying $5 footlong commercials for Subway submarine sandwiches? I have. If I had to pick one commercial to not watch today, it would almost certainly be one of these commercials.While I hate the commercials, I love the concept of the $5 footlong, so you can only begin to imagine how excited I was today when I realized that I would be purchasing lunch from the Subway shop in the Renaissance Center downtown. "$5!" I thought to myself, "I'm saving so much money, I'm going to buy a soda. I was born to be alive on this day." My enthusiasm was quickly smashed when I stepped up to the counter, asked them if they had $5 footlongs, and the guy behind the counter responded that they did not. The only thing that could have been worse than this piece of news would be if I had found out that GM, Ford, and Chrysler simultaneously declared bankruptcy today. This was the first time in my life that I experienced a franchise that decided to not participate in the larger marketing plan of their franchise brand.
Today I learned to never count your $5 footlongs before they're hatched and toasted with provolone cheese. Furthermore, I recommend the Renaissance Center somehow force Subway to honor the time-honored tradition of eating sandwiches measuring at least 12 inches for $5 or less. With this thought, I leave you with a quote from the dearly departed Mitch Hedberg:
“All McDonald's commercials end the same way: “prices and participation may vary.” I want to open my own McDonald's and not participate in anything. I want to be a stubborn McDonald's owner. “Cheeseburgers? Nope. We got spaghetti!...And blankets. We are not affiliated with that clown, he attracts too many children.”
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
I Know a Challenge When I Read One
In 2004-2005, my brother, girlfriend (now fiancee), and occasional participants (sister and Craig) embarked on the greatest adventure of our lives, aptly named the Tour de Nacho. It was our intent to purchase and consume nachos from every single establishment in the city of Ann Arbor that sold nachos, rate the nachos on several different criteria, and then identify the champion nacho provider. In the end, we were not able to declare one universal "winner" because many of the nacho offerings simply could not be compared. We did pick several favorites such as "highest quality+quantity divided by cost ratio" and craziest nacho order, like the $15 behemoth Super Nachos sold at Tios. It was a life changing dining experience and I would like to think that we are all better people from this noble cause. Frankly, I would like to think that the world is a better place.
Similar to the great nacho tour of 2004-2005, I am propelled by this article in The Free Press to eat almost every single burger that they call out on their burger list and bring as many people as possible along with me for the meat-eating ride - my apologies to vegetarians. There are a few criteria that I will apply to this majestic quest - for example, several of the burgers on the list are defined as "High End" burgers, such as the $12 burger from Fiddleheads - and I do not know if the economic times merit this kind of extravagance. Perhaps I can convince Maureen or my parents (or both) to take me to one of these fancy-schmancy high-end burger eateries for my birthday. Based on this dining bliss, I will return to my website, and possibly with the help of participants, develop some reviews and insight as an addendum to this predefined list. On top of this, I will do my best to eat the specific burgers called out at each establishment. I do not care much for Mushroom and Swiss burgers, but if The Free Press tells me that I need to eat a Mush&Swiss burger at The Goodburger, I will eat that burger.
The goal here isn't necessarily to identify the best burger or set of burgers on the list, but rather to identify places where there is consensus disagreement with the list and contribute additional feedback to the information provided by The Free Press - i.e. scariness of the meat, unhold-ability of the burger, toll the burger takes on the stomach later in the night, etc. Your money is valuable to you, and we do not want you to waste money on a $10 burger when you could buy 20 burgers from White Castle for $10. We are here for your benefit, and to make sure that your money is spent in the optimal fashion.
This is a daunting and significant task, and I pledge to you that I, and those who will be participating along with me, do not take it lightly. I am excited, anxious, and thrilled to embark on this exciting period of my life, and I call on you to come along with me. The door is open to any and all interested in changing their lives for the better, and really, wouldn't Jesus want you to come along? I think the answer is clear and meaty.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Why Everyone Hates Us
This article, written by Susan Tompor reflects on her sadness and anger by how much of the country, particularly the media, seems to truly hate the automobile manufacturers/Detroit. They could not be happier if the U.S. automobile industry dies and they are enthusiastic to support their cause on television, radio or anywhere else. She also points out, as I have, that many of these commentators are clearly out of touch with reality and are forming opinions based on what they heard the guy next to them say. For example, someone on TV claimed that Toyota doesn't build large trucks - clearly ignoring the Toyota Tundra (advertised as Biggest and Baddest), or the Toyota Land Cruiser, which does its part to try to put the Hummer to shame.
Across the board, I almost entirely agree with Susan's sadness and anger regarding the national view of Detroit. It is terribly upsetting, particularly if you care about Michigan. The most difficult part of this whole situation is that so many of these hostile opinions are based on mis-or-partial information. And yet, despite my broad agreement with her, I understand why people hate us so very much. One doesn't have to look much farther than this article written yesterday. On a conference call yesterday morning, Ron Gettlefinger, president of the UAW, declared that the UAW would make no concessions in its current contract. Even with this statement, he urged the U.S. to fork over bazillions of dollars to keep the domestic industry afloat and that the problem was, more or less, entirely out of our hands.
I can not imagine a dumber thing that anyone could say two days before Congress considers keeping the UAW and the domestic automobile manufacturers in business by sending them cash. When one enters into a bargaining or compromise phase, there has to at least be some semblance of openness to actual bargaining or compromise. If one's starting position is that "I will not compromise", then the challenging party or individual will not be inclined to provide what it is for which you are hoping. Even if you do not plan to concede on anything, you still come to the bargaining table with the message that you are open to discussion. We are not in an advantageous position with any sort of leverage - the UAW can not threaten a strike if Congress is not kind enough to provide assistance.
Most people hate us because they think that the UAW, whether true or not, is largely responsible for the uncompetitive predicament of the U.S. auto companies. There is a rallying cry around the country that the Big 3 should go bankrupt because it will finally free them of their entangling and damaging union contracts and the UAW will be forced to disassemble. I am not trying to say that the union should or should not do anything in particular with respect to this week's upcoming discussions, but I am very frustrated that Ron has decided to take this hard line approach before conversations have even begun. This is yet more ammunition that people everywhere will use in arguing that Detroit is uncompetitive, closed to change, pigheaded, not progressive, and generally undeserving of financial assistance. The saddest thing of all is that with statements like this from Ron Gettlefinger, I can more and more understand and appreciate their point of view.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Stop Saying Another
Please - when referring to the loans hoped for by the automobile manufacturers, stop using the phrase "Another bailout" when also considering the $25B in loans that were allocated to them in the last budget cycle. The logic is beyond simple.
None of this allocated money has been distributed to any of the automobile manufacturers, and some original estimates said that access to this set of funding will not be available until early 2010. If any money is to be granted, and that is up for debate for the whole world, this money is needed now to assist their liquidity problems. Yesterday.
When I talk about things I want, I do not say that I'm lining up for the raise after the next raise I hope to get, or that I'm looking forward to the summer after next summer. Similarly, I am not currently seeking out my second wife (hopefully never a necessity) when I am engaged to be married next August. The context in which people paint the discussion is flawed. Let's make a deal - as soon as the government grants the autos some funding assistance with an actual corresponding transfer of funds, at that point everyone can start to use the first set of funding as a reason to not provide a second set. For the purposes of this post, I am not arguing for or against funding, but the English language developed the way it did for a reason. Another requires a first.
Departing from the Mantra
As a bookend to yesterday's post, here is an article from Car and Driver magazine that, as far as I know, has no reason to be biased. Comparing the Chevrolet Malibu to the Toyota Camry (which is outselling the Malibu at a greater than 2 to 1 clip) in this article, they write:"We think the Malibu is better than the Camry, but we can’t blame the public for being skeptical of the Malibu. ..it takes time to erase distrust, both among auto journalists and the public at large. And with GM losing billions, the company might just be running out of time to convince car buyers."
Comparing the Cadillac CTS to the Lexis IS, they write:
"...the CTS has a superior chassis that is both supple on-road and up to race-track abuse. The Cadillac also offers a larger and more comfortable interior for the price and more options."
I find that I'm increasingly sounding like a car salesman , and that isn't really the goal. Furthermore, I acknowledge that there are many other vehicles out there that don't meet the standards set by these four vehicles. I just continue to think it is important that people, even someone as unimportant as me, sell the idea that, in some instances, things are improving. This improvement isn't the kind of improvement that we used to find acceptable - this being that things were so terrible, even slight enhancements above this level of suck were massive wins. These are improvements that put us on par or ahead of world-class standards.
For far too long on far too many issues, Michigan in general was satisfied with improvement but not competitiveness. Before, we were satisfied to eat a half-sucked sucker off the street, then, we were happy to eat the treat only once we had pulled the visible hairs off the sucker. Now, we will only consider it if it is still in its original wrapper. That analogy is a piece of crap, but maybe you get my point.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Here is Where I Disagree
That said, there is this one consistent theme that has been popping up around me in the last couple of days in particular. In today's connected world, there are millions of news outlets and everyone, everywhere has an opinion about something. That is the reason why I have this blog as my outlet and you are patient and kind enough to take your time to read these words. Because of this, I think it is easy for anyone with the opportunity to share his/her opinion with the world discounts to nothing the potential impact of thoughts and words. There is such a scatter shot of people with different opinions, than why would any one person's opinion count or impact anything? This kind of thinking gives someone the opportunity to develop and express an unsupported/fallacious and possibly damaging point of view without any concern for the repercussions. This is particularly damaging when varying opinions converge or become "accepted truths", and these accepted truths do not accurately represent reality.
Best example I can think of right now- the argument "Detroit doesn't produce cars people want to buy" is, I genuinely believe, self-fulfilling. Someone says it on CNBC, a blogger continues on with this thread somewhere, a newspaper editorial carries the story saying that the biggest problem is that they're not producing what people want, and in the end, a potential consumer will not even consider a set of possible products because the accepted truth is that there is no way they would want to buy a particular product. Only an IDIOT would buy this or that, because these are cars that NO ONE WANTS TO BUY. I am taking a simplistic approach to the spread of opinions here, and unfortunately for us, these opinions have been formed from years of disappointment. What product or products would convince the public that Detroit does produce cars people want to buy? Looking for a great small car purchase? Consider the relatively new Ford Focus - well-regarded by the press, owners, and the Microsoft Sync technology is a massive hit. Looking for a competitive midsize car? The Chevy Malibu is a great vehicle produced by GM. What about an American alternative to a BMW? The newish Cadillac CTS has won raves from everyone, everywhere, including overseas press.
Despite this progress, though, the accepted truth is that Detroit produces absolutely nothing that anyone "would want to buy." I do not know what can or will create the necessary massive sea change in opinion, it could be too late, and there are lots of other problems to fix. There is a difficult problem when a mantra becomes truth, and everyone carries forward the flag of Detroit not producing products people want to buy. Why is that true? Because you said it. Because everyone said it. It has to be true because everyone knows it's true.
Things I Learned Today #4 - Jesus Agrees with my TV Choices
On the fantastic TV front, Jeffrey Tambor of Arrested Development said in an interview that an Arrested Development movie is "a go". This show was one of the best and most hilarious of all time, yet it was nearly impossible to convince people to just give it a try when it originally debuted several years ago. Since its cancellation, it has continued to spread in popularity thanks to DVD sales and continued good word of mouth. If this movie comes to fruition, I can't imagine many things that could make me more excited - perhaps if Days is picked up for an additional 18 or 36 months. The two entertainment things that I miss more than anything in the world are Mitch Hedberg and Arrested Development. Mitch is dead from drugs and I doubt that we'll have a 2Pac like series of posthumous releases, but perhaps Arrested can live on in movie format.
Finally, today I learned that if I want to get people commenting on and reading the blog, I have to write about something else about which people strongly disagree with me, a la yesterday's post about The Detroitist. When I started this thing several months ago, my friend and mentor Heiko suggested that I focus on generating traffic by writing posts about how much Apple (the company, not the fruit) sucks. He loves Apple (the fruit and the company) and is a holder of stock (the company), but there are so many fanboys who are crazy in their pro-Apple standpoint that I would instantly whip up the ire of gadget lovers everywhere. I would have to deal with a fair amount of anger, but people would be reading. The broader problem with this approach, I have found, is that as painstaking as I am in trying to make my point clear, people selectively decide to ignore entire portions of my arguments. This could either be because I am not as eloquent and persuasive with my words as I think I am, or that skimming results in important segments being skipped. For example, yesterday I tried to repeatedly make clear that I am well aware of the obvious troubles in our state and there are no simple solutions, but in the comments I was accused of being a simpleton who thinks he can "believe" himself out of a problem. I can't believe myself out of a problem, but I do believe that singularly detailing a terrible situation is even less effective than trying to believe myself out of that situation.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Why with the Jerkiness
Kwame...Synagro...Automobile industry...Union mafia...business taxes...Lions...UM basketball...and on and on and on
These things are obvious. Even the most hopeful and prideful person can not ignore the facts, and it would not be helpful to do so. As much as I would like to be oblivious to these things, it is simply not possible. Sometimes, making fun of these things helps to alleviate the stress and strain of having to confront them on a daily basis. Also, if I make one of my very incredibly rare almost non-existent mistakes, it helps me to make peace with the mistake if I can find some humor in the mistake, perhaps through some self-deprecation. Despite this, I am often troubled and upset by the consistently negative, sometimes hateful, viewpoint that Michigan residents take toward Michigan.
For one good example, I'd like to point you toward a very popular, often very funny blog called The Detroitist. I don't know who writes this, how many people they have on their writing team, or anything else about their backgrounds. As a brief overview, they typically take the day's or week's Michigan headlines and in 1-3 sentences, include some sarcastic, clarifying, and generally hostile commentary for each headline. When I find myself on their website, I do think they are creative, clever, and funny, but I struggle to understand their greater purpose. At the top of the site, they include the well-known quote by H.L. Mencken "The job of the newspaper is to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable." Based on my readings of their site, this seems to be some sort of hedging to enable them to level shotgun blast after shotgun blast against Michigan, possibly to "afflict the comfortable"? It doesn't seem to matter what sort of initiative a city in Michigan undertakes to try to better itself and possibly change things for the better, because they will tear into it and call it idiotic through some witty choice of words, making careful to be sure that this bashing is different from the last bashing.
I know that it is necessary to take a critical look at government, individuals, media soures, and public initiatives, because without this critical look, the public could be fooled into thinking that everything and everyone is OK and everything is working just fine. People and programs are forced to perform better when they know that someone or several someones are watching closely. That is why we take exams in school and 12-year-olds still have babysitters. They can probably take care of themselves, but someone needs to keep close watch, to be sure. However, this critical look is meant to produce new and better ideas, recommendations, and solutions - not just be an outlet for negativity and anger.
I would like to think that no one from the Michigan public thinks that everyone and everything is OK right now. I don't need anything to remind me over and over again, even with humor, that everything is the worst thing in the world. I might suggest perhaps sprinkling in some sort of positive message from time-to-time, preferably something not about Carey Torrice.
If you dislike everything about the place and see all efforts toward improvement as a waste of time, effort, and money, there is nothing that is keeping anyone here. I prefer you stay and help to contribute ideas and the energy toward our overall improvement. Someone with a large audience and visible platform like The Detroitist could, occassionally, try to do some good without having to diverge too much from the standard format of lampooning the news.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Please sir, Help us
This morning, there is even further news that AIG is getting even more money. Now, AIG is getting "a reworked $152.5 billion deal from the federal government Monday, as the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department made significant changes to the terms of the company's original bailout." They are getting more money than previously agreed, and the terms of the loan have been drastically altered to reduce the interest AIG is required to pay on these loans. On top of all this, the U.S. government is not getting any larger stake than the current 80% despite the additional money being funneled into AIG.
There is one main reason why this is upsetting to me. The problem is that TARP (Troubled Asset Relief $700B bank funding program) exists entirely because the government wanted to indirectly force banks to begin lending again by making it easier and cheaper for these banks to access capital. Federal Reserve officials of the Bush Administration have repeatedly refused to allow U.S. automakers access to this bucket of cash, because it is intended solely to open the doors for lending/extending credit from banks. This new deal for AIG is funded from the TARP program, and AIG is not a bank. That sounds like a contradiction. On top of that, the TARP program has not convinced banks to extend loans for automobile, and other, purchases. There are many reasons for the auto troubles, but it would be hard to argue that one main reason is that customers can not get access to automobile loans, thereby making it impossible for them to purchase cars. As a personal story, my brother, who has perfect credit but a relatively brief credit history, had to jump through several extra hoops to secure a loan for a recent automobile purchase from General Motors.
If TARP is not doing the job it is meant to do (open lending streams) and it is already being spent on sectors that are not banking, why does the door continue to remain slammed on the U.S. auto companies? It seems, unfortunately for those of us in Michigan and communities around the world based on the automobile industry, that our contributions to the U.S. economy are not valued on par with those of multimillionaire Manhattan-ites.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Why I'd Like to Punch AIG in the Face
A few months ago now, the government provided a gimungous loan to AIG (American International Group) to, ostensibly, prevent the entire collapse of western capitalism. I understand the value of this loan and the critical component that insurance contributes to stabilizing economies. This was a loan for $85B, but in return for the money, the U.S. government assumed an approximately 80% stake in AIG.
Here is where my face-punching desire arises - shortly after this loan to AIG, the U.S. government developed a new commercial-paper-funding program. Commercial paper can be thought of us very short term loans (possibly 1 or 2 days or less) intended to enable a company to fund immediately ongoing operations. Many people actually say that the true credit crunch was that commercial paper providers completely stopped providing commercial paper for a short period of time, thus freezing the flow of commerce. Anyway, the Federal Reserve started pouring money into the commercial paper market so that banks had access to low-interest money, and this was intended to support these banks lending to corporations.
AIG, those wieners, have been taking money from this new commercial paper program from the government and have been paying back their original loans from the government, because this new program provides "less expensive" money for them. That is a smart, but wiener, business move, particularly when viewed with respect to the kind of money that automakers are currently requesting from the government. According to this article, the U.S. government "has put about $144 billion at AIG's disposal." The world is not fair, but how is this incredibly not fair? GM, Ford, and Chrysler are begging for about $25B on top of the current $25B that they have been budgeted in loan guarantees, but again I want to emphasize that these originally approved loans have been written into the budget and are not even close to being yet available.
Regardless of one's opinions about the U.S. auto industry, it is hard not to be angered at AIG's actions. These guys are pretty brazen. Not only did executives from AIG go on a $440K vacation after accepting the original loan, but there is evidence that as executives became aware that their risky investments were imploding and that their company would start to accrue losses, they changed their compensation structure to a guaranteed structure as opposed to largely performance-based pay.
And that, my friends, is why I would like to punch AIG right in the face.
Steel Yourselves, Ourselves
1) As reported this morning, in 2008, the U.S. has lost 1.2 million jobs. In October alone, 240K new people were introduced to the unemployment line - 90K jobs lost from manufacturing, 49K in construction, and 16K in the leisure and hospitality industry. All gone, at least for now.
2) This morning, Ford reported a loss of $129M for the third quarter of 2008, but more importantly, cash burn of about $7.7B. Cash burn is more or less what it sounds like - throwing the cash into a totally awesome and very expensive fire and watching it evaporate. As I type this, everyone is also anxiously awaiting the 3rd quarter financial report from General Motors, including an expected larger loss than Ford with an even more significant cash burn rate.
3) Most of the brownies that I made on Sunday are gone. I'm not too upset about this because I made them to be eaten, but it is sad that brownies ever have to go away.
The top two issues are not cool when taken individually, but particularly uncool when taken together. Unemployed individuals will not have the capability of making any large purchases, resulting in a bleak outlook for pretty much any company selling anything to commercial customers.
So, as with all problems, we as a country and as Michigan residents have a couple of emotional paths that we can take. Path the first - throw your hands in the ay-yer like you just care a lot and are too depressed to do anything else. This path is completely understandable and we have all been there at some time or another in our lives.
Path the second - nut up and keep going. This is the Ken-approved approach. Things suck, job loss is terrible, and our state is currently in a world of hurt. We have been in a world of hurt and job loss for several years now, and you know what, we're still here. Things have been terrible in the past, and things will be terrible again at some point in the future. We must work individually and collectively to create jobs for our displaced workers, and not succumb to general defeatism.
If you're out of a job, think about expanding your personal abilities like learning a language. Go buy a Spanish-English dictionary or textbook and memorize it. Alternatively, use your access to the internet to learn about Java coding or web design or e-commerce. If you can not afford the internet, go to the library and check out a "How To...for Dummies" book or use the library's internet access. If you've pushed as many resumes as possible out of the door and you're still not finding a job and you've learned a new language and you've mastered all things computers, go to your local park with a pointed stick and a trash bag, stab garbage with your pointed stick, and place the garbage into your trash bag.
Every individual has the option of throwing in the towel or committing to kicking some ass and taking some names. There are myriad obstacles, many out of our control, that prevent each of us from kicking the ass that we desire, but we have to grab those things that are within our control and do something about them.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Who is Blanker?
I don't know what individual investors think, but from my point of view, I would much rather have someone leading me who is viewed as a blank slate because we do not yet know what his ideas are, as opposed to a leader who's ideas are a blank slate because that person is, quite literally, a blank slate - no ideas whatsoever, and the words that do come out of his mouth are precious in the way a baby trying to make words and form sentences is precious.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Why Stock Probably Doesn't Work
Buying stock is a great thing and is one of the fundamental tenets of western capitalism. When you buy a stock of a company, you "own" an infinitesimally small fraction of equity in that company. When the company becomes more valuable, the value of your ownership increases, and when the company makes profit, you are entitled to your tiny slice of that profit in the form of dividends. Stock ownership is a great thing.
When a company tries to raise capital (cash), it has the option of issuing additional stock for purchase. There are three main reasons why I think that a stock issuance is not the correct path for these companies at this point in their lives. I believe all three of these reasons tie together, so try to bear with me to the end. I also would like to state that in no way do I think this is the absolutely correct or best solution, but I am looking for the best option, and am happy for any ideas that anyone may provide.
1) OUR companies (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) already have an abundance of debt with an incredibly high interest rate owed to several banks. Have you ever refinanced your credit card debt? Here's the rundown: you owe an average of 20% on three credit cards. Instead of paying 20% every month on these cards, you take a loan out on your home for 8%. You can then immediately pay off the credit card debt, and instead, have one loan that you are paying at 8%. You are still paying interest, but saving significantly every month. These savings are compounded because you are avoiding compounding interest. I am suggesting that we, as Michigan, provide the capability for these companies to refinance a portion of their debt. Instead of paying 14% on their loans, we request 6%, thereby making money for us and saving money for them. So then why not sell stock to raise cash and refinance their debt? Because...
2) Issuing more stock significantly dilutes the equity held by current shareholders. This, in turn, will drive down the price of a share of stock (which must be defined prior to the stock issuance event), resulting in an unpredictable quantity of money that the company can raise. If the price of a share of stock goes down below the price set at issuance, it will not be possible to sell the new shares - instead, people will just purchase them on the open market, resulting in no additional cash whatsoever. And why not let the companies take the risk anyway? The common understanding is that these companies put themselves into this position on their own, right? Because...
3) Stock purchases are typically made at an institutional or individual level. A series of individuals must each decide whether they want to purchase stock in a company or not. Understandable. These companies need a massive infusion of cash, and I don't believe they can acquire the financing they need if every individual has the opportunity to decide whether or not they would like to contribute (and again as mentioned in point 2, the cash made available from a stock issuance is unpredictable). In this instance, we need to decide as a state unit whether or not this is an investment that we would like to make to mitigate job loss and uphold housing values. Not everyone voted for Obama, but he is our president-elect because the country decided that he is the best hope for our future. Everyone in Michigan may not want to contribute to the auto companies, but we, as a state, should have the opportunity to decide what is best for our state's future.
I don't know - I'm no economic genius, but I'm trying to suggest solutions. If you disagree with me, that is perfect, as long as you have a better idea. If your better idea is "let them burn", I would argue that your better idea is the worst idea in the world and that you are, in fact, a smelly pants. Don't be a smelly pants.